Pharma R&D Productivity

Interactive model companion to R&D Productivity and the Evolving Biopharmaceutical Ecosystem (Bonabeau, Schacht & Paul, 2026). Reproduces the Paul-style pipeline funnel and NPV framework with updated phase-specific cost, cycle-time, and p(TS) estimates. Cost models L (lower-bound, ASPE) and H (large-pharma, DiMasi) combine with p(TS) models Pe (Citeline, pessimistic) and Op (BIO/QLS, optimistic) to give four baselines (L/Op, L/Pe, H/Op, H/Pe), alongside AI Scenario A (near-term), AI Scenario B (aspirational AI-native), China cycle-time reduction, and the AI A + China combination. The discount rate auto-sets per model (L→11%, H→9%) and stays editable; costs in 2025 USD. You can edit every assumption directly, or upload your own parameter set from an Excel file.

Global controls

Auto-set per scenario (L→11%, H→9%); editable.

The Pipeline tab uses the selected scenario/modality to redraw the Paul-style funnel picture. The NPV tab uses the same assumptions plus the commercial lifecycle tables below.

Load your own parameters

Upload an Excel workbook to replace the scenario, modality, commercial, and V-case assumptions with your own. The easiest way to get the exact format is to download the template below, which contains the current values, edit it, and upload it back. Sheets that are missing or empty are simply left unchanged.

Pipeline picture

Dynamic reproduction of the notebook-style pipeline figure. Beige phases are discovery/preclinical; blue phases are clinical/regulatory.

Selected scenario summary

Phase-level computed results

Tornado sensitivity plots

Each bar varies one parameter at a time around the selected scenario and modality, while all other inputs stay fixed. Costs and cycle times are varied by a relative percentage. p(TS) is also varied by a relative percentage and capped to stay between 0.0001 and 0.999.

Tornado plot — capitalized cost at launch
Tornado plot — PV of R&D cost at T2H

Editable R&D phase values for the selected scenario

These are the scenario’s base phase values before modality-specific adjustments. Editing a value immediately redraws the pipeline figure and recalculates all NPV tables. Biologic-specific adjustments are controlled in the next table.

Editable modality-specific R&D adjustments

Biologic defaults: Phase III cost +80%; p(TS) +5 pp Phase I, +7 pp Phase II, +6 pp Phase III, +5 pp Submission-to-Launch. All cells are editable.

Current scenario NPV summary

Program-start NPV versus peak annual gross profit
Commercial gross-profit lifecycle for selected V
Gross profits are plotted on the absolute program timeline, where year 0 is Target-to-Hit initiation.

NPV table by scenario and modality

The peak-gross-profit columns are editable in the “Editable V cases” table below.

Break-even V

Editable commercial lifecycle values

Protection ends at the later of patent expiry or regulatory exclusivity expiry. Editing these values immediately updates all curves and tables.

Editable V cases

These values set the columns in the NPV table and the x-values in the NPV chart.

Protection-window check

Equations implemented

R&D model

WIP_i = 1 / Π_{j=i..N} p_j
OOP_i = WIP_i · C_i
m_i = Σ_{k<i} T_k + T_i/2
PV0_R&D = Σ_i OOP_i / (1+r)^{m_i}
CAP_launch = Σ_i OOP_i · (1+r)^{L-m_i}
PV0_R&D = CAP_launch / (1+r)^L

Commercial model

U(a) = min(1, (1-exp(-k·a))/(1-exp(-k·t_peak)))
T_protect = max(T_patent, L + E_regulatory)
E(t) = 1, t ≤ T_protect
E(t) = F + (1-F)exp(-λ(t-T_protect)), t > T_protect
GP(t;V)=V·U(t-L)·E(t)·1_{t≥L}
NPV0(V)=∫ GP(t;V)/(1+r)^t dt - PV0_R&D

Export